📊 Research Tool

Prediction Intelligence

AI-powered probability analysis for prediction markets. Monitor discrepancies between market odds and AI estimates. Paper trade and track statistical edge. No real money execution.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a research and simulation tool only. No financial advice is provided. Polymarket availability varies by jurisdiction. Always verify local regulations before trading on prediction markets.

Simulated Trades

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Paper Win Rate

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Sharpe Ratio

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Max Drawdown

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Signals Found

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Stage 1: Monitor

Fetch market odds, track liquidity, volume, and historical price movement. No execution.

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Stage 2: AI Evaluate

AI reads news, official statements, cross-references similar markets and estimates own probability.

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Stage 3: Paper Trade

Log simulated trades. Track ROI, win rate, Kelly sizing, Sharpe and drawdown over 500+ trades.

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Stage 4: Validate Edge

Only if 500+ simulated trades show consistent statistical edge does live trading get considered.

AI Signal Scanner

Market	Market Prob	AI Estimate	EV Delta (ΔP)	Signal	Kelly %
Click "Run Simulation" to load AI signals from 500-trade paper trading session.

How AI Calculates Signals

Expected Value (EV)

EV = (P_AI - P_Market)
where P_AI > P_Market = BUY YES signal
where P_AI < P_Market = BUY NO signal

Kelly Criterion Position Sizing

K% = (P_AI * b - (1-P_AI)) / b
where b = market odds decimal - 1
Applied at 25% of full Kelly

Sharpe Ratio

Sharpe = (R_p - R_f) / sigma_p
Target: Sharpe > 1.5
Only signals with EV > 5%

💡 Roadmap